Augmenting adjusted plus-minus in soccer with FIFA ratings

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Adjusted plus-minus (APM) can sometimes lack common sense. This happens, for instance, when mediocre players move into the top ten, and superstars fall out of 100. These occasional outliers hurt credibility APM, mask benefits, such as increased prediction accuracy. We address this problem with a new method, called Augmented APM. APM incorporates external player ratings methodology. The purpose rating system is to capture sense value. maintains benefits improves by leveraging that pass eye test. key technical idea recasting Bayesian framework using in prior distribution. paper instantiates method applying it soccer. methods have not had substantial impact on soccer, because soccer matches are low scoring, number substitutions. For ratings, we use video game FIFA, which provides subjective evaluations from thousands scouts, coaches, season ticket holders. Our shows predicts match outcomes better than (1) (2) FIFA ratings. also show de-correlates same team, helps play most their minutes together. Although our results specific principled combine objective single system.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2194-6388', '1559-0410']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2021-0005